The Graham formula

Benjamin Graham wrote a 700 page book on security analysis - so two paras from his November 1963 talk may not do him justice.

'Buy definitely 'bargain issues'. Typically these would be shares that sold for less (than) their value in working capital alone, with nothing paid for fixed assets or goodwill. These were quite numerous up to as late as 1957...'

Looking at the market as a whole, Graham valued it based on:

'average earnings of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average for ten years past, capitalised at twice the interest rate on high grade bonds. For example at the present time the average earnings for the last ten years are about $33 on the Dow Jones unit and the present value on high grade bonds is 4.3%. If you capitalise at 8.6% - which is a multiplier of about 12 - you would get a Central Value on the old basis of about 380, as compared with the present price of about 750'.

Never mind the forecast, feel the philosophy.